Trading Signals and News Update For Friday

Yesterday we had the retail sales coming out of New Zealand, and I told you if it came out at 0.1% or lower, it would be a possible sell on NZD/USD. It came out at 0.2% so it did not hit my trigger so it was a no trade. NZD/USD slightly went down by 10 pips, and then it continued going up. In addition to that, we saw a conflicting revisions and other numbers. It was a no trade anyway.

Let's now talk about today, Friday.

1. Friday, October 12th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Tomorrow we will have one set of reports that are worthy watching and possibly trading, and that's U.S. retail sales and PPI. The most important reading out of all 4 readings will be the retail sales CORE which is expected at 0.3%. Usually in September retail sales out of the U.S. is coming out strong. However, the last year and now retail sellers have been reporting worse data than everybody is expecting. They are expecting 0.3% which is basically nothing comparing to the last month it went down by 0.4%. If retail sales core reads at 0% or negative, that would be even worse than everybody is expecting, and probably bad for the U.S. dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. The reason why I am saying 30 minutes is because we have Bernanke speaking 40 minutes later, and you don't want to be in trade with retail sales while Bernanke speaks because he may say something that may completely change the market direction. On the other hand, if the retail sales comes out at 0.6% or higher, that would be a pretty good rebound, more than everybody is expecting, and even more than decline of the last month, and I think based on that GBP/USD may possibly go down by around 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. We also have the headline retail sales which normally does not conflict but watch out for any possible conflicts here. There are also possibilities for revisions, and we also have the PPI. The core PPI is the most important one but, unlikely to the headline number, it almost never deviates significantly as it is a very steady indicator. If there is a conflict between PPI and retail sales, we may see a retracement on the initial spike but I think the retail sales will pull this move out. Obviously, because so many indicators are coming out at the same time, it is always hard for me to do any analysis here so use the triggers if there is no big conflict. If there is a big conflict, then you need to look at it and judge, possibly just stay out. After the spike I would like to enter within 10 to 15 pips of the pre-release price, and maybe use 20 pips stop loss, and try to get 20 to 25 pips profit. Obviously, if you are able to enter with a price that is very close to the pre-release price, your SL can be smaller and TP may be bigger.

That's pretty much all for today.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Thursday

Yesterday we had only one report coming out that we were watching and possibly trading, and that was the Australian employment change. As you could see, it did not hit my trigger as it came out 13,000, and my trigger was 5,000 or below. There was also a conflicting number on the unemployment rate. The AUD/USD did not do much either. That was definitely a no trade.

Let's now talk about Today.

1. Thursday, October 11th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA & CANADA
Tomorrow we will have a trade balance coming out of the USA and Canada, both at 8:30 a.m. Normally I trade them, but this time I am skipping them. Most of people don't care about U.S. trade balance. Canadian trade balance, however, used to be a good indicator but last month we saw a huge drop by 1.3 B as it was expected to come out at 5 B, and it came out at 3.7 B. We saw no price action at all. You can go to our calendar on ForexBastards website, and if you click on the file, you can see history charts for this indicator. As you can see there, although last month the deviation was 1.3 B, and U.S. trade balance came out as expected, USD/CAD went up 15 pips, and then it dropped by a lot more. It seems that the trade balance is not in focus right now so I don't want to take any unnecessary risk, and trade something that is not hot. I suggest you to skip this one.

2. Thursday, October 11th, 2007 (5:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then we will have retail sales coming out of New Zealand. The number to focus on will be retail sales headline number as the core number has very little importance here. It is expected it will come out at 0.4%. If it comes out at 0.1% or below, that would be a second month in a row with a very low reading, and I think we may see NZD/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the retail sales comes out at 0.7% or higher, we may see NZD/USD gaining 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Support and resistance levels as well as the amount of deviation will be important for this indicator, especially a support level on the downside. What is more, we may even see a 50 pips move if the deviation is bigger than 0.3% either direction but I think 30 pips is a very safe target here. Skip the spike, wait when the price retraces, and I would try to get in within 10 to 15 pips of the pre-release price, or maybe even as much as 20 pips if the deviation is huge like 1.00 or higher.

SUMMARY:
* Report: New Zealand Trade Balance
* Sell on NZD/USD if the number will be 0.1% or lower
* Buy on NZD/USD if the number will be 0.7 or higher
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

That would be all for today.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Wednesday.

There will be only one thing that I will be watching, and possibly trading.

1. Wednesday, October 10th, 2007 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have Australian Employment Change coming out. It is expected to come out at 20,000 versus 32,000 last month. If it comes out at 35,000 or higher, that would be bullish for the Australian dollar, and AUD/USD may possibly move up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. It may move a lot more if the deviation is bigger. On the other hand, if it comes out at 5,000 or lower, that would mean the employment market may be cooling, and that would probably be somewhat negative for the Australian dollar, and AUD/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I think the employment change is important at this moment as Australian dollar has been extremely strong recently because there were a lot of very strong indicators proving big strength of the Australian economy, and if the employment is better than last month, I think it is going to continue this trend. On the other hand, if the employment collapses to 5,000 or lower, people will start reconsidering that maybe Australian economy is slowing down as well, and I think AUD/USD may temporarily dive down. I would let the spike happening on this one, and then try to get in within 10 to 15 pips of the pre-release price, depending on how big the deviation is, and depending on any revisions and conflicts with the unemployment rate. Conflicts are very rare here.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Australian Employment Change
* Buy on AUD/USD if the number will be 35 K or higher
* Sell on AUD/USD if the number will be 5 K or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Monday and Tuesday

1. Monday, October 8th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Monday we have have Columbus day out of the U.S. We do have UK Industrial production and PPI input coming out at the same time. I would skip this one simply because the Industrial production failed to create any moves last two months. Manufacturing simply does not matter in the UK at this particular time. Let's skip this one, and return to this indicator when manufacturing will be a hot indicator again.

2. Tuesday, October 9th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Tuesday at 4:30 a.m. we will have a trade balance coming out of the UK. It is expected -6.9 B versus -7.1 B. In my opinion, if the trade balance comes out at -8 B or more negative, that would probably be negative for the pound, and GBP/USD may possibly go down by 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the trade balance is -6 B or less negative, that may be positive for the pound, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 35 pips or so in the first hour of the report. This should be relatively simple to trade, there is no other conflicting indicator. I would try to get in after the spike within 0 to 10 pips of the pre-release price, depending on the deviation. Use maybe 15 pips SL, and maybe 20 to 25 pips TP, depending on the price action, and let see what happens there. If you are interested in seeing what this indicator did in the previous months, you can go to Forexbastard calendar, and click on a little file box icon, and you will be able to see a history of that indicator for the last few months.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK Trade Balance
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be -8 B or more negative
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be -6 B or less negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

3. Tuesday, October 9th, 2007 (2:00 p.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 2 p.m. New York time we will have FOMC meeting coming out. This one will be pretty important. During the last FOMC meeting the Fed cut the rate by a half of point, and we saw a very nice move on GBP/USD. A lot of people receiving these signals made a lot of money. There is one thing that is worth watching at this FOMC minutes. If they say that Fed is ready to cut more rates, I think that it would be negative for the U.S. dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If there is anything else said that does not hint towards future rate cuts, or if the Fed is being uncertain about what they will do in the next few months, then I would suggest to skip and not trade it. If you decided to trade, I would suggest to enter within 10 to 15 pips of pre-release price, after the initial spike, if they clearly state that they were planning to cut more rates.

That's all for now. Next signal will be on Tuesday,

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Trading Signals and News Update For Friday

1. Friday, October 5th, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. New York time we will have Canadian Employment change coming out which is expected to read at 17,000 or so, very similar to the reading from the last month when it was 23,000. If for some reasons it comes out at 35,000 or higher, that would be the highest reading in the last 6 months, and it would signify a very resilient employment market in Canada, and I think based on that USD/CAD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 0 or negative, that would mean a contracting employment market in Canada, and if it is a case, USD/CAD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the deviation is much bigger, the move may be bigger as well. This report can move USD/CAD by as much as 80 pips or more, depending on the deviation. What I gave is a minimum deviation that I believe should move market by at least 40 pips.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Canadian Employment Change
* Sell on USD/CAD if the number will be 35,000 or higher
* Buy on USD/CAD if the number will be 0 or negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Friday, October 5th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll coming out. This indicator may be a little tough to trade because last month for the first time in a long time we saw a negative reading. Now the question is if whether it was a one-time fluke and it is going to be revised this month, or it was a legitimate reading that is going to set a new trend. The actual reading will matter a lot, and it is expected to rebound to 100,000 versus -4,000 last month. If for some reasons the reading is 150,000 or higher, I think it would be a message that possibly last month's reading was a fluke, and such a strong rebound may drive GBP/USD down by as much as 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if we had a reading of 50K or lower, that would be a pretty low reading after a negative reading, and I think based on that GBP/USD may possibly gain 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Of course, a revision will also matter. If for some reasons we will see a reading lower than expected, but the revision is revised from -4K to +60K, than it is not going to be bad for the dollar. That would be pretty normal, and possibly it would even be considered positively. Therefore, if the revision conflicts significantly, I suggest to stay out of this indicator; however, if the revision is not conflicting so the reading is above 100K and the revision is positive, this may amplify the move. Similarly, if the reading is below expectations, and revision is negative, it may amplify the move as well. If the deviation is large and a revision is not conflicting, this indicator may easily move the market by as much as 120 pips in the first hour of the report. It has happened before, and it may happen again - depending on the deviation.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Non-Farm Payroll
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 150,000 or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 50,000 or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

That's all for Friday. I hope you will make some money on these big indicators.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Thursday

1. Thursday, October 4th, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 7 a.m. New York time we will have UK interest rate decision. It is expected that they will hold the rate at 5.75%. If for some reasons they will hike it to 6.00%, GBP/USD may possibly gain 100 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If for some reasons they will cut the rate to 5.50%, GBP/USD may possibly go down by 100 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Such scenario is extremely unlikely. Watch for some comments out of UK, if there are any. If the UK government is dovish, and they mention anything about possibility of cutting rates in the future, expect GBP/USD to drop by 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if they talk about a possibility to hike the rate in the future, GBP/USD may go up by 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Thursday, October 4th, 2007 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 7:45 a.m. New York time we will have Euro zone releasing their interest rate statement. It is expected they will hold the rate at 4.00%, same as last month, and if for some reasons they will hike the rate to 4.25%, EUR/USD may possibly gain 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If there is a surprise cut to 3.75%, EUR/USD may possibly go down by 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. It is extremely unlikely they would cut a rate because Euro zone is still on the hiking spree. Also, there is going to be no speech; Trichet actually will be speaking at 8:30 a.m. New York time which is 45 minutes later.

3. Thursday, October 4th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Trichet speech out of Euro zone. That speech may be a little bit too complicated to trade so I am not going to tell you how to do it. However, be very careful with your own trades at that moment as you may see some price actions that will affect all currencies against the Euro. At 8:30 a.m. I would just stay out of the market unless you really know what you are doing.

That's is all for Thursday.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Wednesday

1. Wednesday, October 3rd, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have UK Services PMI coming out which is expected to read at 56.8. As you know, services is about 80% of UK economy, and this indicator measures how well this sector of economy is doing. If the reading is at 59 or higher, I think that would be pretty good for the pound, and I think we may see GBP/USD going up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the reading reads at 55 or below, we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Of course the bigger deviation is, the bigger the move can be.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK Services PMI
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 59 or higher
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 55 or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40/30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Wednesday, October 3rd, 2007 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:15 a.m. New York time we will have ADP Employment Change coming out of the U.S. As you may already know, ADP tends to predict a little bit of what the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll will read on Friday. It is expected it would read 55,000 or so. In my opinion, if the reading is 100,000 or more, it would be positive for the U.S. dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the reading is at 0 or negative, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report because it would be negative for the U.S. dollar.

SUMMARY:
* Report: ADP Employment Change
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 100,000 or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0 or negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

3. Wednesday, October 3rd, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index coming out. It is expected to read at 54.8. In my opinion, if this index reads 58 or higher, I think we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the reading reads 51 or lower, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Remember, this is a very market moving indicator. Don't try to rush into it. Most likely it will spike, and go back to prerelease price so you could get a good entry on afterspike trade, regardless of deviation. Don't be fooled if the deviation is big. Even on big deviations the currency may not react that much on this indicator. Nevertheless, we should see at least 30 pips move.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 58 or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 51 or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

That's all for Wednesday.


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Trading Signals and News Update For Wednesday

Today we will have two indicators coming out that may possibly be tradable.

1. Wednesday, September 26th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4.30 a.m New York time we will have UK GDP coming out which is going to be 3rd and final revision for the second quarter. It is expected to come out at 0.8%, same as last month. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, that would set a new record high for GDP since 2004, and I think based on that GBP/USD may gain 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the UK GDP reads 0.7, which would be somewhat disappointing, GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. However, with the deviation as much as 0.2 either direction we may easily see a move on GBP/USD by as much as 50 or 70 pips or more but most likely this indicator will come out at 0.8 because it is a revision, and most likely this is going to be a no trade. Unless you really want to wake up, you may just skip this one.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.K. GDP
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.9% or higher
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.7% or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Wednesday, September 26th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8.30 New York time we will have U.S. Durable Goods coming out. This indicator is very interesting, very unpredictable, very ugly, and nobody cares about it lately. Trading this is totally different than other indicators. The Core number is more important number to focus on, and it is expected to read -1%. If it reads -2% or more negative, that should we weakening for the U.S. dollar so GBP/USD may possibly go up. On the other hand, if durable goods comes out at 0 or positive, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down. We may see a move 30 pips or more; however, that may happen very quickly on the spike. If the move is against a strong trend, it would not be wise to enter even on the retracement. If the trigger is hit, go with fundamental on the retracement, and only with a trend. In fact, if you want to be even more creative, you can try to get a better price on the trend if this indicator comes out conflicting. If it is all new for you, and you don't know what I am writing about, you may just want to skip that one. We will have a little bit easier indicators on Thursday.

That's pretty much all for today.

Trading Signals and News Update For Monday and Tuesday

Next week we have nothing going on on Sunday as well as on Monday so you can have a nice, long weekend.

1. Tuesday, September 25th, 2007 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 4.00 a.m. we will have German IFO. I suggest you skipping that one unless you really know what you are doing. A lot of factors such as price sentiment need to be taken under consideration if you want to trade that one. If you do know what to do, you do not need my assistance to do it.

2. Tuesday, September 25th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10.00 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales and U.S. Consumer Confidence coming out. Home sales is pretty much number 1 topic right now, and I believe Existing home sales is going to be more important than the consumer confidence; however, the consumer confidence has to be in tune with home sales. If it is conflicting too much, that would be a little messy trade. Existing Home Sales are expected to come out at 5.5 M. If they come out at 5.8 M or higher, that would actually be a significant rebound, better reading than the last two months, and I think based on that GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the home sales disappoints, and reads 5.2 million, that would actually be a quite big jump down from 5.75 million last month, and a reading of 5.2 million or lower would probably drive GBP/USD up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Again, if U.S. consumer confidence conflicts, and that there is some really important price levels, the move may be a little bit choppy, however, if they don't conflict, there is a pretty good chance to hit my price projections.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Existing Home Sales
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 5.8 M or higher.
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 5.2 M or lower.
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

3. Tuesday, September 25th, 2007 (6:45 a.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then at 6.45 p.m. New York time we will have New Zealand trade balance coming out. It is expected to read at -1 B. This should be a pretty simple one. There is no conflicting indicators at the same time. If it reads -1.5 B, that would be a very negative reading, way more negative than the expectations are, and I think NZD/USD may possibly go down by 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the New Zealand trade balance comes out reading -500 million or less negative, I think that would be a relatively positive reading, and NZD/USD may possibly gain 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On this one, most of the movie may happen on the first spike so wait for retracement for a good entry. Try to get an entry within 10 pips or better of the pre-release price. If you cannot get it, do not trade it. What also would be very important is how the trade balance is driven: whether it is export or import, meaning whether the export is better than expected, or import is worse than expected. Obviously, a positive trade balance driven by export is a lot better than a positive trade balance that is driven by same export and decreased import. I hope I did not confuse you with this import-export stuff.

SUMMARY:
* Report: NZ Trade Balance
* Sell on NZD/USD if the number will be -1.5 B or more negative.
* Buy on NZD/USD if the number will be -0.5 B or less negative.
* If the trigger is hit, expect 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Wednesday

Today we will have 4 indicators coming out that are worth watching and possibly trading, or at least worthy mentioning in this email.

1. Wednesday, September 19th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have Bank of England meeting minutes coming out. I think this indicator is not worth watching because of what most recently happened with one of the bank institutions being in trouble in the UK, and pound lost over 200 pips. Those minutes are going to be pretty much pointless. If there is unanimous vote for holding the rate on the last meeting that will not do anything. If there was 8 to 1, 7 to 2, or 6 to 3, that should not matter that much either simply because the situation has changed tremendously since the last meeting, and I don't think the vote would be that important. In addition to that, some people even are talking about possible cut on interest rate due to all financial problems over there. I would just skip that one.

2. Wednesday, September 19th, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then at 7 a.m. New York time, we will have Core CPI coming out of Canada. The most important reading is core CPI m/m. There is about a 50-50 split. Half of the economists are expecting 0.1%, and another half: 0.2%. If that comes out flat and 0% or negative, I think USD/CAD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the CPI reads 0.3 or higher, I think USD/CAD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

3. Wednesday, September 19th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time, we will have US CPI coming out. The most important reading is the CPI core m/m. Most of the economist expects the reading to be at 0.2%, some expects 0.1%. If it reads 0.1% or 0.2%, that would probably be not much surprise. However, if it reads 0% or negative, there is no reason for the Fed not to continue cutting rates in the months to come because inflation is 0 or negative. This reading may send GBP/USD up about 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it reads at 0.3% or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

4. Wednesday, September 19th, 2007 (6:45 a.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then at 6:45 p.m. New York time we will have current account balance out of New Zealand. It is a quarterly indicator so it blesses us with its presence only four times a year. It is expected that it will read about -3.29 billion. If it reads, -3.8B or more negative, I think NZD/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the current account comes out at -2.8 or less negative, I think NZD/USD may possibly gain 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Don't rush into this trade; just let the spike happen unless you have a tool to trade a spike. Just try to get in on retracement within reasonable price in order to have reasonable SL and TP.

Let's hope we will make some good money today. Good luck with your trades.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Monday and Tuesday

Let's review what happened earlier Friday.

We had only one report that we were talking about yesterday, and that was U.S. Retail Sales. I told you if it comes out negative, we may see GBP/USD possibly going up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. The report did come out negative, and GBP/USD opened up at 2.0130 or so, and then it went out to about 2.0168. It went up about 38 pips or so. There were a lot of opportunities to enter in the first minute or two within a five pips of the prerelease price. Definitely, some money could be made here. Another option was to trade USD/JPY which actually worked much better due to carry trade stuff happening. USD/JPY went from 82 to 35 so we actually saw 47 pips move on that one. I hope you made money on this.

Let's now talk what is going on on Monday and Tuesday next week.

1. Monday, September 17th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
On Monday we have only one indicator coming out that is worth mentioning, and that's U.S. Empire Manufacturing indicator. It is expected to read at 20. I said worth mentioning but not necessarily trading. That indicator usually comes out with other indicators so it is extremely difficult to measure how much impact it can alone have to market. Considering the situation with carry trades happening, I recommend to skip that one and just observe it. The really save trigger would be if it comes out at 40 or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0 or negative, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Such large deviation is extremely unlikely.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Empire Manufacturing indicator
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 40 or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0 or negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Tuesday, September 18th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Tuesday we have U.K. CPI coming out. This is definitely steaming hot indicator under current circumstances. The main one to focus one will probably be UK CPI y/y which is expected to read 1.9%. If it comes out at 2.1% or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 1.7% or lower, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. We may see a relatively large deviation if it is only 0.1% deviation either direction but in order to trade 0.1% deviation, you would need take into consideration the price action right before the report. I believe that 0.2% deviation is a pretty safe trigger regardless of price action and levels before the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.K. CPI y/y
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 2.1% or higher
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 1.7% or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

3. Tuesday, September 18th, 2007 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
Then at 5 am we will have German ZEW. It is expected it will read -17. I think if it reads -30 or more negative, we may possibly see EUR/USD going down by 25 pips in the first hour of the report. If the German ZEW reads -5 or less negative, I think EUR/USD may possibly gain 25 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Spike trading on this one is extremely dangerous. The only way to trade it is get in after the spike, and try to get an entry within 5 pips of the pre-release price, and set a SL maybe 12 to 15 pips, and try to shoot for 15 to 20 pips profit.

SUMMARY:
* Report: German ZEW
* Sell on EUR/USD if the number will be -30 or more negative
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be -5 or less negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 25 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

4. Tuesday, September 18th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Next, we will have U.S. PPI coming out at 8.30 am New York time. The most important one, I think, would be PPI core m/m. It is expected to read at 0.1%. If it reads 0.4% or higher, it would match the highest reading in a while, and I think we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the PPI comes out at -2% or more negative, we may possibly see GBP/USD going up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. PPI Core m/m
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.4% or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be -2% or more negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

5. Tuesday, September 18th, 2007 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
I suggest you to skip TIC report at 9 am.

6. Tuesday, September 18th, 2007 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
Then, we will have U.S. Interest Rate decision out of the United States. It is mostly expected that the US will cut the rate by 0.25%. If they cut the rate by 0.50%, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If they hold the rate at 5.25%, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. There should be comments accommodating the statement, and comments are going to be important. Even if they are going to cut by 0.25% but some interesting comments are released, it may be a very tradable report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Interest Rate Statement
* Buy on GBP/USD if they will cut the rate by 0.50% to 4.75%
* Sell on GBP/USD if they will hold the rate at 5.25%
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
* Watch out for comments.

That's pretty much all for Tuesday. I hope we will both make some good money.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Friday

Earlier today we had Swiss interest rate statement coming out, and I told you that if Switzerland hikes from 2 1/2 percent to 2.75%, we may possibly see GBP/CHF going down by 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Well, they did hike, and as you could see, GBP/CHF opened at about 4055, and it went down to about 3940 so it was about 115 pips. It was a relatively slow move. In the first 15 second it went down 20 pips, then another 20 pips, and then another 20 pips and so on.

Yesterday we had New Zealand retail sales. It came out at 0% which was a sell on NZD/USD. The price opened at 7120 and it drop to about 7095 or so. It was 25 pips drop, and then it retraced, and dropped again. I told you that if you miss the spike, you could get in on the retracement. I got in at 7111 and 1/2; however, the price didn't do too much for a while which was very weird for the retail sales. I exited for 2.5 pips loss. To make a long story short, you could have made money if you followed my signal. I did not keep my trade that long.


1. Friday, September 14th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Tomorrow we will have U.S. Retail Sales that I feel is worth watching and possibly trading. This indicator did not have a very good track record lately; however, this particular one, I think, is important because of U.S. situation right now. It is also coming out before the Fed doing something with interest rates, and consumer spending is very important. If retail sales comes out strong, it would be a possibility that Fed may not cut the rate like people are expecting. If it comes out very weak, the Fed may have a good reason to cut a rate even by as much as 0.50%. The most important reading is going to be retail sales core which excludes automobiles, and it is expected to come out at 0.2%. Last month it came out at 0.4%. If retail sales core q/q reads 0.5% or higher, it would be even better reading than last month, and I think we may see some strength in the U.S. dollar so GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it reads -0.1% or more negative, I think it would be negative for U.S. dollar, and we may possibly see GBP/USD going up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Please note that it can move the market by as much as 100 pips on GBP/USD pair.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Retail Sales Core q/q
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.5% or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be -0.1% or more negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Thursday

Let's now talk about what happened earlier today. We already had UK Average Earnings and Unemployment, and we will have two more reports later today that I will review tomorrow.

The UK average earnings came out slightly better than it was expected, claimant count change came out much lower, and the unemployment came out the same. Everything was positive for the pound, and we have seen GBP/USD going up. It opened at around 2.0325 or so, and within the first 15 minutes it reached 2.0365 so it was a 40 pips target. If you took advantage of this, congratulations.

Let's briefly talk about what's going on tomorrow.

1. Thursday, September 13th, 2007 (8:00 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
Tomorrow we have only one indicator coming out that I feel is worth watching and possibly trading, and it is going to be Swiss interest rates statement at 8 a.m. New York time. Switzerland has been on interest rate hikes spree, and they are expected to hike tomorrow; however, because of the carry trade unwinding and subprime mortgage market, people are not sure now if they will hike it. If for some reason Switzerland hikes their rate tomorrow from 2.50 to 2.75, we may possibly see GBP/CHF going down by 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if Switzerland leaves the rate unchanged, we may possibly see GBP/CHF going up by 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report. It is going to be a very interesting trade. Pretty much it is going to be a guaranteed trade. I don't know if it is going to be a profitable trade but it seems like fundamentally it will definitely be an extremely high probability trade.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Swiss Interest Rate statement
* Sell on GBP/CHF if they will hike the rate from 2.50 to 2.75%
* Buy on GBP/CHF if they will leave the rate unchanged at 2.50%
* If the trigger is hit, expect 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Wednesday

Earlier today we had a couple of indicators coming out. First, we had a UK trade balance coming out at 4:30 a.m. New York time. It came out a lot worse than it was expected. It hit my trigger to sell GBP/USD, and we expected the GBP/USD going down by 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report. What actually happened was the price opened at around 2.0260, and it went down to about 2.0240 so it was about 20 pips, and the 40 level was a very strong support level. As a result, it just bounced off, and it never came back as it went the other direction. If you made money on this, this is good; if you lost because you expected a bigger move, that's OK - there is going to be another opportunity. I consider it as a failed signal because it did not reach my target level.

Then, at 8:15 a.m. we had housing number coming out of Canada. That did not hit my trigger.

At 8:30 a.m. New York time we had Canadian trade balance coming out. It came out way lower than it was expected. It hit my trigger to buy EUR/CAD, and EUR/CAD opened around 4463 or 65 or so, and then it went up to about 4488. It went up only 20 pips in our direction; we expected around 40 pips. Then it retraced. It did not help that the housing came out a little bit higher, and housing price index also came out higher as the housing is a sensitive material. I will consider this as a failed trade also.


Let's now talk about tomorrow, Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, September 12th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. New York time will have UK average earnings including UK unemployment rate coming out. To be honest, it is very difficult for me to give any triggers for this one because this indicator has always been coming out with other things such as BOE minutes or trade balance, so it is very hard to say how much impact it can cause to the the market. In addition to that, in my opinion, the unemployment rate is the most important indicator out of the three; however, it very rarely deviates from expectations, and average earnings as a very volatile indicator. Therefore, unless you are experienced trader, I suggest you to not trade this one. If you are an experienced trader, than you will know what to do. Basically, all three indicators should be in line, and if they are, then see a price action to make a trading decision.

2. Wednesday, September 12th, 2007 (5:00 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then at 5 p.m. New York time we will have Interest rate statement coming out of New Zealand. It is expected they will hold the rate at 8.25%. It is extremely unlikely that anything will happen but of course if they will hike the rate to 8.50%, we may see NZD/USD going up by 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If for some reason they will cut the rate to 8.00%, NZD/USD may go down 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Most likely they will keep the rate at the same level. Pay attention to some comments that may come out together this interest rate statement. If they will give any hints towards future rate hikes, we may see NZD/USD going up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If they will give a hint towards possibility or need towards rate cuts, then we may see NZD/USD going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

3. Wednesday, September 12th, 2007 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then at 6:45 p.m. New York time we will have New Zealand retail sales. I think this is an important indicator. The headline number is going to be the important one. If it reads 0.6% or higher, I think it would be a very pleasant rebound, and we may see NZD/USD going up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 0% or negative, we may possibly see NZD/USD going down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. We may possibly see a spike of about 30 pips in the first 10 to 15 seconds of the report, then we may see a retracement and a continuation of the price action. I would try to get in within 15 to 20 pips of the pre-release price if my trigger is hit, also depending on how big the the deviation is, and use 15 to 20 pips SL and 20 to 25 pips TP.

SUMMARY:
* Report: NZ Retail Sales headline
* Buy on NZD/USD if the number will be 0.6% or higher
* Sell on NZD/USD if the number will be 0.0% or negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.


That's all for Wednesday.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Monday

Let's now talk what is going on on Monday and Tuesday.

1. Monday, September 10th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
Than on Monday at 4:30 a.m. we have UK PPI coming out. This indicator could cause a move, especially that timing is very important for this indicator. Inflation is important in the UK. The PPI output number could be a little bit more important; however, if the PPI input deviates by a lot, that could also cause some moves. I will not give any specific instructions on how to trade this one because it will largely depends on the conflict between the two in the actual readings as well as the price action right before the report. If you are inexperienced, just skip this indicator.

2. Tuesday, September 11th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Tuesday at 4:30 a.m. we have UK trade balance coming out of the UK. In my opinion, this one is a little bit more predictable. It is expected to come out at about -6.4 billion. I think if it comes out at -7 billion or more negative, we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the trade balance comes out at -6 billion or less negative, we may possibly see GBP/USD going up by 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I would just try to miss the spike, and try to get in within 5 to 10 pips of the pre-release price, and see if 20 pips can be squeezed out of this one.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK Trade Balance
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be -7B or more negative
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be -6B or less negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

3. Tuesday, September 11th, 2007 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then at 8:15 a.m. New York time, on Tuesday, we have Canadian housing starts coming out. Usually, I don't trade this indicator because it hardly ever deviates but we have seen a decent deviation on the house number in Canada this week, and it moved the Canadian dollar significantly because housing is a hot topic. It is expected to come out at 220,000. If it comes out at 250,000 or higher, I think USD/CAD could possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first 15 minutes of the report. On the other hand, if the housing comes out at 190,000 or below, that would be a low reading, and I think USD/CAD may possibly gain 30 pips or more in the first 15 minutes of the report. I say 15 minutes because 15 minutes later at 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. trade balance and Canadian trade balance coming out.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Canadian housing starts
* Sell on USD/CAD if the number will be 250K or higher
* Buy on USD/CAD if the number will be 190K or less
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first 15 minutes of the report.

4. Tuesday, September 11th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we have Canadian trade balance coming out. It is expected to come out at approximately 5 billion or so. In my opinion, if it comes out at 5.4 billion or higher, we may possibly see EUR/CAD going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the trade balance comes out at 4.5 billion or below, we may possibly see EUR/CAD gaining 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. One of the reasons for this set of triggers is first of all a reading of 4.5 billion would be the lowest reading this year, and a reading of 5.4 billion would be higher reading than last month which would be a pleasant surprise. There is also U.S. trade balance coming out, and that why I am suggesting to trade EUR/CAD; however, the EUR/CAD will still be affected because of EUR/USD pair but anyway EUR/CAD would be better choice for this report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Canadian trade balance
* Sell on EUR/CAD if the number will be 5.4B or higher
* Buy on EUR/CAD if the number will be 4.5B or less
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

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Gold Soars Above $700 A Ounce


Newly released unemployment figures sent gold prices above $700 and the stock markets plummeting today. U.S. employment fell for the first time in four years last month with steep declines in construction and manufacturing payrolls. As economists express fear that the worse may be yet to come, including a possible stock market crash and recession, gold reached a fifteen month high on the New York Spot Market, closing at $700.70, up $5.60.



Merrill Lynch, which accurately forecast gold to break $700 in September, has also forecast that gold could reach $1,500 in the next five years. Gold reached its all-time high of $850 per ounce in January 1980.


Analysts see gold's next target to be around $730 per ounce, the 26 year high reached in May 2006. "The market is bullish. Over the coming weeks and months, we will see an attempt to take the market higher towards the $730-$740 area," Peter Hillyard, head of metals sales at ANZ Investment Bank told Reuters. Dennis Gartman, editor of the prominent financial newsletter, Gartman Letter, wrote "This is a very real bull market in gold's favour; weakness is to be bought rather than strength sold."

Silver closed up $0.19, ending the day at $12.61. Platinum was also higher, gaining $7 to close at $1,297. You can see the most current spot prices at www.goldline.com.

Call Goldline Today at 1-800-827-4653
Goldline Account Executives are available to assist you Monday through Thursday, 7:00 AM to 5:30 PM, PST and Friday, 7:00 AM to 5:00 PM, PST. Or visit our website at www.goldline.com.

Sincerely,
GOLDLINE INTERNATIONAL, INC.

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The Indomitus Report

This report is a few years old but it still makes interesting reading for anybody that uses ecurrencys.


"The coin is a delicate meter of civil, social, and moral changes...It is the finest barometer of social storms, and announces revolutions."
- Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1860,
"Essay on Wealth"

The start of the year is a fine time to assess the status of the free market money industry. The year 2004 saw remarkable growth in the volume of precious metals under management, the services available for free market money, and the features presented by free market money systems. We also saw some failures, most notably the evaporation of the evocash system after many years of successful operation.

Read the full report here.The Indomitus Report

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Trading Signals and News Update For Friday

Let's briefly review what happened yesterday.

We had UK Industrial Production, and I told you that it was probably not too wise to trade it at this moment because manufacturing sector doesn't seem to do anything in the UK. It came out lower than it was expected, and we saw a brief spike down on the GBP/USD, and then the price went back to about the pre-release price. Certainly, that was a good decision not to trade this.

Then we had UK interest rate statement. They held the rate; however, for the first time in the last eight years they released comments that were relatively dovish, and we saw GBP/USD going down by almost 60 pips in the first hour of the report. That was very difficult to catch because of the huge surprise.

Then at 7:45 a.m. New York time we had the interest rate statement out of the euro zone. It was a no hike, and the price action was consolidating before the announcement, so that was a no trade.

Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we had Trichet speaking. He did not say anything hawkish. He said the may still hike but they need more data. He did not give any hints what will happen, he was very uncertain. That was a no trade but EUR/USD still went down but I think with such comments shorting euro would not be too smart so it was definitely a no trade.

Then at 10 a.m. New York time we had ISM Non-Manufacturing coming out. It came out very close to expectations so it did not hit my trigger. That was a no trade either.

Now let's discuss what is going on today.

1. Friday, September 07th, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Tomorrow we will have Canadian employment change coming out. It is expected to come out at 18,000 versus 11,300 last month. In my opinion, if the Canadian employment comes out at 30,000 or higher, we may possibly see USD/CAD going down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the Canadian employment comes out at 5,000 or below, we may possibly USD/CAD gaining 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Spikes on this can happen relatively quickly so if you missed the initial spike, I would try to get in within the first 20 pips of the prerelease price on the retracement, and try to squeeze out maybe a 20 to 25 pips profit on this one.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Canadian Employment
* Sell on USD/CAD if the number will be 30,000 or higher
* Buy on USD/CAD if the number will be 5,000 or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Friday, September 07th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Non-Farm payroll coming out. It is expected to come out at 100,000. If it comes out at 120,000 or higher, that would be bullish for the U.S. dollar so we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Remember, ADP came out very low so now they are expecting a rather lower reading than higher reading so even a relatively small deviation of 20,000 from expectations should still be very bullish for the dollar. I think even if it comes out as expected - that is 100,000, I think it still could be bullish for the U.S. dollar but of course it would be safer to trade on deviation of 20K or higher. If the reading comes out at 50,000 or below, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If you missed the initial spike on this one (which may happen easily on this report), it will all depend on deviation and important price levels before the report. When you see a spike of 50 pips, I would try to get in on the retracement as close to prerelease price as possible - maybe within 10 to 15 pips. At the same time, if the deviation is so huge, we may only see 30% of retracement. Anyway, I gave you triggers, and I'm pretty sure the price will go there like 50 pips or more within the first hour. It may go much higher if the deviation is bigger so judge yourself regarding entries.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Non-Farm Payroll
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 120,000 or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 50,000 or less
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Thursday

We had a very interesting day. I said if the Services PMI comes out at 57.5 or higher, we may possibly see GBP/USD going up by 30 to 40 pips in the first hour of the report. It came out 57.6, it hit the trigger, and as you could see, the price opened at 2.0073, it spiked and retraced to pre-release price. Within 1 hour it went up 28 pips or so. If you made money on this, congratulations. If you did not, this was a hard one to trade, I personally expected much more violate move.

Then at 8:15 New York time we had ADP Employment change coming out. It came out much worse than expected, it hit my buy trigger on GBP/USD. I was expecting a move of at least 40 pips but unfortunately it went up by 15 pips or so, and then it consolidated within a range of 15 to 20 pips for the next hour. I was very surprised by that. If you made money on this - congratulations. If you lost a little or broke even, it was not a big deal. I cannot imagine anyone losing more than a couple of pips.

Then actually at 10 a.m. we had pending home sales. I did not tell you about it because I did not feel that would be an important one but it was a tape bomb. It came out a whopping -12.2% versus -2% expected, and we had GBP/USD going up by about 100 pips in the first hour of the report. If you made money on this, congratulations. I didn't talk about it yesterday, and I did not take advantage of the move. It was a totally surprise, and I wish I watched it but I did not.

Then at 9:30 p.m. New York time we had Australian employment change coming out. It came out at 31.9 K, and I said if it comes out at 30,000 or higher, AUD/USD may possibly gain about 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report, and we also talked about the fact that the price should retrace within 10 pips of the prerelease price, and you could get in on the retracement. That's exactly what happened. The price opened at 8207, and it retraced to around 8213 or so. If you set up reasonable SL, within the first hour it reached 8235. It hit our 30 pips target, and generally behaved the same way like in the past, except the retracement came out a little bit slower than normal. If you made money on this, congratulations; if you didn't, this definitely wasn't the easiest employment change to trade.

Let's talk about tomorrow.

1. Thursday, September 6th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
Tomorrow at 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have industrial production coming out of UK. I suggest skipping that one, manufacturing definitely hasn't been in focus in UK.

2. Thursday, September 6th, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
Then at 7 a.m. New York time we will have UK interest rate statement coming out. I strongly believe that there are going to hold the rates at 5.75%, I think there is almost no chance for surprise considering their CPI and everything. You might skip that one as well. If you want to watch it, and for some reason they are going to hike to 6%, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 200 pips ore more in the first hour of the report. Unfortunately, that's extremely unlikely to happen.

3. Thursday, September 6th, 2007 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 7:45 a.m. New York time we will have interest rate statement coming out of euro zone. This is a very interesting one. For the first time in a while if not ever, everybody is unclear what the euro zone will do. The Euro zone up to date was very methodical at a rate increases so everybody always knew if they would increase or hold because Trichet would say special key words prior the hike. This particular time he basically said that they have to look at what was going on, and then see what to do. There is about 80% chance they are going to hold, and about 20% chance they are going to hike. It is unlikely they would hike but there is a possibility they would do that. If they hike to 4.25%, EUR/USD may possibly go up by 80 pips or so in the first hour of the report. If they hold the rate, it may be a good possibility for a short depending on what EUR/USD and EUR/JPY are doing in 30 minutes before the report time. If they're creeping up, and they gain more than 20 pips within 30 minutes before the report, I think short on EUR/USD if it was a no hike could be warranted.

4. Thursday, September 6th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we have Trichet delivering his speech which is definitely another key thing to look at. If for some reason he is somewhat hawkish, and economists consider his speech as a hint towards a rate increase, even if not next month but in two or three months, I think EUR/USD may possibly gain 60 or 70 pips in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if he is completely dovish and uncertain, it is going to be difficult to trade. Trade only hawkish comments.

5. Thursday, September 6th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10 a.m. New York time we will have ISM non-manufacturing coming out. This seems to be a very interesting indicator that definitely could be tradable. It is expected to come out at 54.5 versus 55.8 last month. If it comes out at 52.3, that would be the lowest reading since April 2003, and it definitely would not help the U.S. dollar, considering all the other indicators that have been coming out below expectations. A reading of 52.3 or lower could possibly send GBP/USD up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. It will really depend where the GBP/USD is before this report. If the reading comes out at 57 or higher, it would definitely be considered as a strong reading, and we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Again, a price level right before this report will be extremely important because this is not a key indicator, and a price level right before this indicator will make a huge difference.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Wednesday

In previous email we talked about a couple of indicators. On Monday we were talking about the UK manufacturing PMI, Australian GDP, and on Tuesday were talking about Swiss GDP, US ISM manufacturing, and interest rates statement out of Australia.

UK manufacturing PMI did not hit my trigger but I also told you that probably the best to do would be not trading that indicator because this one has not been performing too well recently. It seems the market does not care about it, and this is exactly what happened. It deviated but not hit my trigger, and it did absolutely nothing. Skipping it was a very wise decision.

Then on Monday at 9:30 p.m. New York time we had Australian GDP. It came out at 0.9%, and I told you that if it comes out at 0.9% or higher, it would be a possible buy on AUD/USD, good for at least 40 pips in the first hour of the report. As you could see, it spiked from 8206 to approximately 8253 so it was almost 50 pips. The spike was very quick, then it very quickly traced, and then it continued going up. In the first hour it hit 47 pips target. If you made money on this, I am very happy for you. If you did not get in on the initial spike, it probably was a very difficult to trade because the retracement came extremely fast so probably if you had a limit order submitted around 8225 or better, you would have been filled; however, under normal circumstances this is a twice bigger spike than it usually is, and this was a little bit out of the ordinary move. If you played conservatively and missed this move, don't worry about it.

On Tuesday the Swiss GDP came out exactly as expected, nothing to talk about.
ISM manufacturing came out also pretty much exactly as expected, that also was a no trade. Same with Australia as they kept the rate unchanged.

Let's talk about tomorrow, Wednesday.

Tomorrow we have a few things happening.

1. Wednesday, September 5th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK services PMI coming out. This one will be a very interesting one. I think it is going to move the market more than usual because we have a very low inflation in the UK, and right now the big question is whether that was a one-time fluke or indeed the growth has slowed down. As you remember, UK had a bad weather with flooding so a lot of people think it was a one-time fluke. This is the first indicator coming out of UK for the month of August, very timely indicator, especially that services is 85% of the UK economy. It is expected that this indicator will come out at 56.5 which would be the lowest reading ever. If it comes out at 57.5 or higher, GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If this indicator comes out at 55.5 or lower, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I would not be surprised if we even see a decent move of 30 pips or more even if a deviation is half a point but that would be a more risky trade, and a lot of current situation factors (such as price levels right before the report) would have to be taken into consideration. A deviation of 1 should be a relatively safe deviation for this one.

2. Wednesday, September 5th, 2007 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:15 a.m. New York time we will have ADP non-farm employment change which always comes out about two days before the US Non-Farm Payroll report. It's very clear that everything out of the U.S. is important right now because they are contemplating about a possible cut on interest rates so it is expected that this indicator will come out at 80,000. If it comes out at 40,000 or below, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 120,000 or more, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Timing is crucial, and I think we may see a much more exaggerated move than normal.

3. Wednesday, September 5th, 2007 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then at 9 a.m. New York time we have Canadian interest rates statement. It is expected widely they are going to keep everything unchanged at 4.50%. Canadian indicators have been coming out questionable regarding their growth, and I highly doubt that they would hike it. There may be some comments accompanying this statement, and if the comments are hawkish hinting towards the next rate hike being pretty close, USD/CAD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the comments are eliminating a rate hike in the near future, then we may see USD/CAD gaining 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If you're inexperienced, don't trade this report.

4. Wednesday, September 5th, 2007 (9:30 a.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. New York time we will have Australian employment change coming out. This is one of my most favorite indicators; it deviates pretty often and it's relatively easy to make money on this one. The employment is expected to read 18,000. In my opinion, if it reads at 30,000 or higher, we may possibly see AUD/USD gaining 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 5,000 or lower, AUD/USD may possibly lose 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Usually there is a very nice retracement, and it is very easy to get in after the spike. Look for an entry within 10 to 12 pips of the prerelease price.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Tuesday

1. Tuesday, September 4th, 2007 (1:45 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
On Tuesday at 1:45 a.m. New York time we will have Swiss GDP coming out Switzerland. It is expected to read at 0.7%, exactly as last quarter. If it reads 1% or higher, I think USD/CHF may possibly go down by 15 to 20 pips in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 0.4 or lower, I think USD/CHF may possibly go up 15 to 20 pips in the first hour of the report. That's kind of doggie indicator, it seems people doesn't care about Swiss GDP too much so if you want to trade that, just be very careful. Don't expect much more than 15 to 20 pips of the move, and I would suggest exiting in the first half hour because in my experience it retraces 100% within the first hour after it hits its target of 15 to 20 pips. I will probably skip that one, but if you want to trade it, trade it.

2. Tuesday, September 4th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10 a.m. New York time will have ISM manufacturing coming out of the United States. It is expected to read at 53 versus 53.8 last month. I will definitely be trading this one. If it comes out 55 or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 51 or lower, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. As always, watch out for important support and resistance price levels.

3. Tuesday, September 4th, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then, at 7:30 p.m. New York time will have Australia releasing its interest rates statement. It is anonymously expected that they will leave it unchanged at 6.50%. If for some reason they decide to hike to 6.75%, I think AUD/USD may possibly gain 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report. However, this is extremely unlikely. It wouldn't be probably a smart move for Australia to do that so quickly so if you want, you may skip this indicator.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Monday

On Thursday we talked about Australian retail sales, and I told you if it comes out at 0.9% or higher, we may possibly see AUS/USD going up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. It actually came out at 0.9, and the price opened at about 8165, and we saw a move of only about 20 pips in the first hour, and then it broke out a couple of hours later for more than 100 pips. According to my signal, my target was not met. Despite of that, I was able to make some profit, and I hope you made too.

Japan CPI (on Thursday) didn't hit my trigger so let's not even talk about it.

Then on Friday we had Canadian GDP which came out higher but it didn't hit my trigger either so that was a no trade.

Then we had Chicago PMI, it came out very close to expectations, and that was no trade as well.

On the Bernanke speech we saw some strengthening on the U.S. dollar, short-term. One of the reasons is because he did not say anything dovish about a rate cut coming up which the market was expecting. I personally did not trade that one; I was just watching.

Let's now talk about Monday, Labor Day weekend, and Tuesday.

1. Monday, September 3rd, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Monday at 4:30 a.m. New York time will have UK manufacturing PMI coming out of UK. It is expected that the UK manufacturing will read about 55 after a reading of 55.7 last month. I personally will not be trading this indicator because first of all it's the Labor Day weekend so we may see some muted action because of that, and second of all, lately we haven't been seeing too much follow through on that indicator. It seems like right nobody really focuses on that. However, if you want to trade, you can try the following triggers: if it comes out at 57 or higher, it think GBP/USD may go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 53 or lower, I think GBP/USD may go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I'm pretty confident that if these triggers are hit, you will see a move of 30 to 40 pips in the first hour; however, I think such deviation is extremely unlikely so I am not even going to participate that trade; instead, I am going to enjoy Labor Day weekend.

2. Monday, September 3rd, 2007 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then, on Monday at 9:30 p.m. New York time we will have Australian GDP coming out. That is a very important indicator, I will probably be trading it. It is expected that GDP q/q will read about 0.6 versus 1.6 last month. This indicator blesses us with its presence only four times a year. If it reads 0.9 or higher, I think AUD/USD may possibly go up by as much as 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 0.3 or lower, I think AUD/USD may go down by as much as 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I think 30 pips is going to be a very easy target, and 40 pips would be a kind of maximum target for this indicator.

3. Tuesday, September 4th, 2007 (1:45 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
On Tuesday at 1:45 a.m. New York time we will have Swiss GDP coming out Switzerland. It is expected to read at 0.7%, exactly as last quarter. If it reads 1% or higher, I think USD/CHF may possibly go down by 15 to 20 pips in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 0.4 or lower, I think USD/CHF may possibly go up 15 to 20 pips in the first hour of the report. That's kind of doggie indicator, it seems people doesn't care about Swiss GDP too much so if you want to trade that, just be very careful. Don't expect much more than 15 to 20 pips of the move, and I would suggest exiting in the first half hour because in my experience it retraces 100% within the first hour after it hits its target of 15 to 20 pips. I will probably skip that one, but if you want to trade it, trade it.

4. Tuesday, September 4th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10 a.m. New York time will have ISM manufacturing coming out of the United States. It is expected to read at 53 versus 53.8 last month. I will definitely be trading this one. If it comes out 55 or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 51 or lower, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. As always, watch out for important support and resistance price levels.

5. Tuesday, September 4th, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then, at 7:30 p.m. New York time will have Australia releasing its interest rates statement. It is anonymously expected that they will leave it unchanged at 6.50%. If for some reason they decide to hike to 6.75%, I think AUD/USD may possibly gain 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report. However, this is extremely unlikely. It wouldn't be probably a smart move for Australia to do that so quickly so if you want, you may skip this indicator.

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Trading Signals and News Update For Friday

1. Friday, August 31st, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have Canadian GDP coming out of Canada, and it is expected to read flat 0% versus 0.3% last month. This indicator is last indicator out of Canada before the interest rate decision next week. Everybody thinks that Canada already made up their mind what they're going to do, and most people expect them to hold next week. However, this GDP reading may affect what Canada will do in October in terms of their interest rates. I think if that comes out same as last month at 0.3%, it would prove that their economy is performing very healthy and better than everybody is expecting, and I think based on that USD/CAD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the GDP reads -0.2 or more negative, that would be a very disappointing reading, and that would mean the Canadian economy is actually slowing down, and there may be no need for further hikes. I think based on that a reading of -0.2 or lower (more negative) may move USD/CAD up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. We will have some U.S. indicators coming up at the same time such as the PCE core but from my experience they most likely will come out exactly as expected.

2. Friday, August 31st, 2007 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then, at 9:42 a.m. New York time we will have Chicago PMI coming out of the United States. This indicator comes out at 9:42 a.m. to the special subscriber group, and all the official news services get it at 9:45. It is expected to come out around 53 versus a reading around 53.3 last month. If it reads at 50 or below, that would be very significant because that means manufacturing is actually slowing, not growing. A reading below 50 means regress, and a reading above 50 means some progress. If the reading is at 50 or below, we may possibly see GBP/USD gaining around 18, maybe 20 pips or more in the first 10 minutes of the report; however, if the reading reads 56 or higher, then we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 20 pips or more in the first 10 minutes of the report. I say 10 minutes because we will have Bernanke speech coming out at 10 a.m. New York time. I strongly recommend that you close all of your positions from Chicago PMI before the beginning of his speech, and not right at the beginning of his speech but preferably about 5 to 7 minutes before the speech because I believe the price may move a little because of people taking profits or cutting loses. It may play in your direction or against your direction. It is up to you if you want to take 50-50% chance but I suggest you to close your position before the speech.

3. Friday, August 31st, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
As I said, at 10 a.m. New York time Bernanke will be talking to some banks about the current situation with housing and the monetary policy. I highly doubt that he will say anything new. I think everybody is just on hold waiting what is going to happen with the credit (carry trades, subprime mortgage stuff), and I think he will do his regular speech of being waiting and getting ready to react, and doing whatever it needs to do in order to not negatively affect the U.S. economy. It will probably be very little move in a market based on his speech; however, remember it's Friday, 10 a.m. is the end of the London session, and we may see some interesting price action not even related to the speech, or some reaction that would be difficult to predict. Basically I am not going to trade the speech. It is difficult as it is to try to trade the speech, and also it is the end of the week and the end of the month so some traders may want to close their positions.

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Trading News Update For Thursday.

Thursday, August 30th, 2007 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 2 a.m. New York time we will have UK house price index coming out. It is expected to come out around 0.5%. Usually I don't trade this indicator but I think the timing for this indicator is crucial because the inflation came out very low last week or the week before, and the question is whether it's a legitimate reading or simply a byproduct of a bad weather and other seasonal things. If the housing reads 0.8 or higher, that means the inflation still probably be uncomfortably high, and I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the reading is 0.2 or lower, then it would be a second lowest reading in a row after 0.1 last month, and that may mean that the inflation is indeed possibly slowing down because house prices are slowing down so GBP/USD may possibly drop 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Thursday, August 30th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. GDP coming out. It's a second reading, basically a revision of the previous reading. It is expected to read at 4.1% versus 3.4%, mostly due to more data that has been gathered about exports. Don't mistake this with the GDP reading that we had last month - this is simply a revision of that reading so it has a lot weaker affect on the market. In my opinion, if the reading comes out at 4.5 or higher, we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the GDP reads at 3.7 or lower, GBP/USD may possibly gain 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If you trade this indicator, try to get in within the first 10 pips of the pre-release price. If you cannot get in around that price, don't chase it. Trail your stop-loss very closely because this indicator can turn around and go the opposite direction. Be careful with this one.

3. Thursday, August 30th, 2007 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) JAPAN
Then at 7:30 p.m. New York time we will have Japan CPI coming out. The most important reading will probably be Core Tokyo CPI excluding food. It is expected to read at -0.1%. If it reads -0.3% or more negative, it would surely mean that Japan probably is not going to raise rates for a while, and USD/JPY may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if CPI reads at 0.1% or higher, I think USD/JPY may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

4. Thursday, August 30th, 2007 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 9:30 p.m. New York time we will have Australian retail sales and Australian trade balance coming out. The retail sales is expected to read around 0.5%, and the trade balance is expected to read -1 billion. The retail sales is definitely the more important indicator; however, if the trade balance conflicts or doesn't conflict it would make a big difference how to trade this report. If the retails sales comes out at 0.8% or higher, and the trade balance does not conflict so comes out also better or the same as it was expected, AUD/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I would try to get in within first 10 pips on the retracement of the initial spike. However, if the trade balance conflicts, I would try to get in at the pre-release price because the price may go down very well. Use about 15 pips stop-loss, and maybe 20 pips take-profit. On the other hand, if the Australian retail sales comes out at 0.2% or lower, I think AUD/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Same situation with the trade balance: if the trade balance also comes out worse, I would try to get in within first 10 pips of the pre-release price but if the trade balance comes out conflicting meaning better-than-expected then I would try to get in at the prerelease price, short. Be very careful on this one, do not chase it. If you could not get in within 10 pips, just stay away because usually when price goes like 30 pips then it consolidates, and it is too risky to trade.

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Trading News Update For Wednesday and Thursday.

1. Wednesday, August 29th, 2007 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
Actually Wednesday is pretty much dead. We have only one indicator coming out which is Swiss KOF Index at 5:30 a.m. New York time. I'm personally not going to trade it because this indicator rarely deviates from expectations, and even when it does deviate, the move is like 20 to 25 pips on USD/CHF - and if you are lucky. It is expected to come out at 2.15 versus 2.13 last month. It's a leading index of Switzerland, and it has been rising every month since January this year. If for some reason it comes out at 2.30 or higher, I think USD/CHF may possibly go down by 20 to 25 pips in the first 30 minutes of the report. If the index comes out at 2.00 or lower, I think USD/CHF may possibly go up by 20 to 25 pips in the first 30 minutes of the report. If you're trading it, I would recommend to get in within the first 5 pips of the pre-release price. If you cannot get that price, don't even try chasing it. If you will be able to get in at that price, you can squeeze maybe 10, 15 or 20 pips out of this and exit. Also exit if your target is not hit after first 30 minutes.
Thursday is going to be a very busy day.

2. Thursday, August 30th, 2007 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 2 a.m. New York time we will have UK house price index coming out. It is expected to come out around 0.5%. Usually I don't trade this indicator but I think the timing for this indicator is crucial because the inflation came out very low last week or the week before, and the question is whether it's a legitimate reading or simply a byproduct of a bad weather and other seasonal things. If the housing reads 0.8 or higher, that means the inflation still probably be uncomfortably high, and I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the reading is 0.2 or lower, then it would be a second lowest reading in a row after 0.1 last month, and that may mean that the inflation is indeed possibly slowing down because house prices are slowing down so GBP/USD may possibly drop 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

3. Thursday, August 30th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. GDP coming out. It's a second reading, basically a revision of the previous reading. It is expected to read at 4.1% versus 3.4%, mostly due to more data that has been gathered about exports. Don't mistake this with the GDP reading that we had last month - this is simply a revision of that reading so it has a lot weaker affect on the market. In my opinion, if the reading comes out at 4.5 or higher, we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the GDP reads at 3.7 or lower, GBP/USD may possibly gain 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If you trade this indicator, try to get in within the first 10 pips of the pre-release price. If you cannot get in around that price, don't chase it. Trail your stop-loss very closely because this indicator can turn around and go the opposite direction. Be careful with this one.

4. Thursday, August 30th, 2007 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) JAPAN
Then at 7:30 p.m. New York time we will have Japan CPI coming out. The most important reading will probably be Core Tokyo CPI excluding food. It is expected to read at -0.1%. If it reads -0.3% or more negative, it would surely mean that Japan probably is not going to raise rates for a while, and USD/JPY may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if CPI reads at 0.1% or higher, I think USD/JPY may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

5. Thursday, August 30th, 2007 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 9:30 p.m. New York time we will have Australian retail sales and Australian trade balance coming out. The retail sales is expected to read around 0.5%, and the trade balance is expected to read -1 billion. The retail sales is definitely the more important indicator; however, if the trade balance conflicts or doesn't conflict it would make a big difference how to trade this report. If the retails sales comes out at 0.8% or higher, and the trade balance does not conflict so comes out also better or the same as it was expected, AUD/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I would try to get in within first 10 pips on the retracement of the initial spike. However, if the trade balance conflicts, I would try to get in at the pre-release price because the price may go down very well. Use about 15 pips stop-loss, and maybe 20 pips take-profit. On the other hand, if the Australian retail sales comes out at 0.2% or lower, I think AUD/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Same situation with the trade balance: if the trade balance also comes out worse, I would try to get in within first 10 pips of the pre-release price but if the trade balance comes out conflicting meaning better-than-expected then I would try to get in at the prerelease price, short. Be very careful on this one, do not chase it. If you could not get in within 10 pips, just stay away because usually when price goes like 30 pips then it consolidates, and it is too risky to trade.

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