Trading Signals and News Update For Friday

Let's briefly review what happened yesterday.

We had UK Industrial Production, and I told you that it was probably not too wise to trade it at this moment because manufacturing sector doesn't seem to do anything in the UK. It came out lower than it was expected, and we saw a brief spike down on the GBP/USD, and then the price went back to about the pre-release price. Certainly, that was a good decision not to trade this.

Then we had UK interest rate statement. They held the rate; however, for the first time in the last eight years they released comments that were relatively dovish, and we saw GBP/USD going down by almost 60 pips in the first hour of the report. That was very difficult to catch because of the huge surprise.

Then at 7:45 a.m. New York time we had the interest rate statement out of the euro zone. It was a no hike, and the price action was consolidating before the announcement, so that was a no trade.

Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we had Trichet speaking. He did not say anything hawkish. He said the may still hike but they need more data. He did not give any hints what will happen, he was very uncertain. That was a no trade but EUR/USD still went down but I think with such comments shorting euro would not be too smart so it was definitely a no trade.

Then at 10 a.m. New York time we had ISM Non-Manufacturing coming out. It came out very close to expectations so it did not hit my trigger. That was a no trade either.

Now let's discuss what is going on today.

1. Friday, September 07th, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Tomorrow we will have Canadian employment change coming out. It is expected to come out at 18,000 versus 11,300 last month. In my opinion, if the Canadian employment comes out at 30,000 or higher, we may possibly see USD/CAD going down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the Canadian employment comes out at 5,000 or below, we may possibly USD/CAD gaining 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Spikes on this can happen relatively quickly so if you missed the initial spike, I would try to get in within the first 20 pips of the prerelease price on the retracement, and try to squeeze out maybe a 20 to 25 pips profit on this one.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Canadian Employment
* Sell on USD/CAD if the number will be 30,000 or higher
* Buy on USD/CAD if the number will be 5,000 or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Friday, September 07th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Non-Farm payroll coming out. It is expected to come out at 100,000. If it comes out at 120,000 or higher, that would be bullish for the U.S. dollar so we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Remember, ADP came out very low so now they are expecting a rather lower reading than higher reading so even a relatively small deviation of 20,000 from expectations should still be very bullish for the dollar. I think even if it comes out as expected - that is 100,000, I think it still could be bullish for the U.S. dollar but of course it would be safer to trade on deviation of 20K or higher. If the reading comes out at 50,000 or below, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If you missed the initial spike on this one (which may happen easily on this report), it will all depend on deviation and important price levels before the report. When you see a spike of 50 pips, I would try to get in on the retracement as close to prerelease price as possible - maybe within 10 to 15 pips. At the same time, if the deviation is so huge, we may only see 30% of retracement. Anyway, I gave you triggers, and I'm pretty sure the price will go there like 50 pips or more within the first hour. It may go much higher if the deviation is bigger so judge yourself regarding entries.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Non-Farm Payroll
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 120,000 or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 50,000 or less
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

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