Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Trading Signals and News Update For Wednesday

Today we will have two indicators coming out that may possibly be tradable.

1. Wednesday, September 26th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4.30 a.m New York time we will have UK GDP coming out which is going to be 3rd and final revision for the second quarter. It is expected to come out at 0.8%, same as last month. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, that would set a new record high for GDP since 2004, and I think based on that GBP/USD may gain 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the UK GDP reads 0.7, which would be somewhat disappointing, GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. However, with the deviation as much as 0.2 either direction we may easily see a move on GBP/USD by as much as 50 or 70 pips or more but most likely this indicator will come out at 0.8 because it is a revision, and most likely this is going to be a no trade. Unless you really want to wake up, you may just skip this one.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.K. GDP
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.9% or higher
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.7% or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Wednesday, September 26th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8.30 New York time we will have U.S. Durable Goods coming out. This indicator is very interesting, very unpredictable, very ugly, and nobody cares about it lately. Trading this is totally different than other indicators. The Core number is more important number to focus on, and it is expected to read -1%. If it reads -2% or more negative, that should we weakening for the U.S. dollar so GBP/USD may possibly go up. On the other hand, if durable goods comes out at 0 or positive, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down. We may see a move 30 pips or more; however, that may happen very quickly on the spike. If the move is against a strong trend, it would not be wise to enter even on the retracement. If the trigger is hit, go with fundamental on the retracement, and only with a trend. In fact, if you want to be even more creative, you can try to get a better price on the trend if this indicator comes out conflicting. If it is all new for you, and you don't know what I am writing about, you may just want to skip that one. We will have a little bit easier indicators on Thursday.

That's pretty much all for today.

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